Domestic Steel Prices Plunge to Five-Year Low Amid Rising Imports and Weak Export Demand

Domestic steel prices have fallen sharply to Rs 47,000–48,000 per tonne, marking a five-year low, as rising imports and weak export demand exert pressure on Indian mills. Hot rolled coil (HRC) is trading around Rs 47,150 per tonne, while rebar (TMT) is quoted between Rs 46,500–47,000 per tonne, levels last seen during the pandemic slowdown in 2020.

Market analysts attribute the decline to multiple factors. Global oversupply, aggressive export pushes from countries like China, and sustained import activity have contributed to the downward trend. Despite government measures to curb steel imports, India remains a net importer, with September 2025 seeing 0.79 million tonnes of finished steel brought into the country, up from 0.69 million tonnes in August.

Imports from Korea, Russia, and Indonesia surged, while shipments from China, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan declined compared with September 2024. During the first half of FY26, inbound steel exceeded exports by 0.47 million tonnes, even as export volumes rose 40 percent to 4.43 million tonnes.

Interestingly, while steel prices have tumbled, raw material costs remain elevated. Iron ore continues to trade around Rs 4,800–5,000 per tonne, a one-year low, and coking coal is near USD 205 per tonne CFR, a one-month low. This mismatch is putting additional pressure on mill margins, particularly for smaller producers.

Taking note of the situation, the Ministry of Steel is holding an open house discussion today in New Delhi with industry stakeholders to address import-related concerns. The Reserve Bank of India has also highlighted the need for policy support to enhance the competitiveness of domestic steel production.

Looking ahead, market experts expect steel prices to remain subdued in the near term due to high inventories, soft demand, and seasonal weakness. Any further price corrections could prompt production adjustments in the coming months, as mills navigate high input costs and global market volatility.