India’s Steel Imports Expected to Halve in FY26 After Safeguard Duty

India’s steel imports could fall by 50% in FY 2025-26 following the imposition of a 12% safeguard duty, said Steel Ministry Secretary Sandeep Poundrik on Thursday. This could bring imports down from 9.5 million metric tonnes (mt) in FY 2024-25 to around 4.75 million mt this year.

The government introduced the safeguard duty on April 12, 2025, for 200 days, to curb rising inflows and protect domestic producers. While there’s speculation about raising the levy to 24%, Poundrik clarified that no decision has been made yet. A final call will be taken after the Directorate General for Trade Remedies (DGTR) submits its report in August.

“The DGTR’s report will guide whether we continue, increase, or lower the duty,” Poundrik said, adding that extensive consultations with industry stakeholders will shape the next step.

India’s steel producers have welcomed the move, saying it offers relief from cheap overseas supplies, particularly from countries with excess capacity. Imports had surged in recent quarters, triggering concerns about pricing pressure and under-utilization of local plants.

On the broader outlook, Poundrik also touched on India’s growing steel consumption. Per capita consumption was 104 kg in FY 2024-25. The government estimates this to increase to 155–160 kg by 2030 and possibly up to 200 kg or more by 2035.

The rise is propelled by massive infrastructure projects, increasing urbanization, and increasing industrial production. “This trend is indicative of India’s changing economic profile and patterns of demand,” he said.

The Ministry is concerned with maintaining a fair playing field for local producers in addition to balancing the national infrastructure and development requirements.