Rumors of 12% Steel Import Levy Cause Uncertainty in Indian Market

Reports in the Indian press are abuzz with speculation of a 12% temporary safeguard duty on steel imports to shield domestic producers from rampant cheap imports, especially from China. But there has not been official confirmation yet. Such speculation has caused uncertainty, and industry insiders have been arguing about whether a move like this is possible or could even work.

The proposed levy would reportedly apply to both alloy and non-alloy flat steel products where the landed prices exceed certain thresholds. The recommended floor prices include $675 per metric ton (mt) for hot rolled coils (HRC), $695/mt for hot rolled plates (HRP), $825/mt for cold rolled coils (CRC), $861/mt for coated flat steel and $964/mt for color-coated flat steel. But a spokesman for one of India’s largest steel mills rejected those rumors, saying the idea was impractical and that import prices could never be set this way.

Indian steelmakers are seeking protective measures amid global challenges, including potential U.S. tariffs and rising imports from Asia-Pacific nations. While some within industry circles have demanded a 25% hike as a safeguard duty, market analysts claim the more likely outcome would be a 15% tariff, if any measures are indeed implemented. The emphasis is primarily on limiting HRC imports, particularly from nations under Indian free trade agreements (FTAs). Imports from Japan and South Korea under these agreements aren’t subject to fundamental customs duties, while shipments from China face a 7.5% responsibility.

Data explain that from April to January of the 2024-2025 fiscal year, up to 78% of India’s total steel shipments were from South Korea, China and Japan. Leading the way, South Korea imported 2.4 million mt, up 11.7%, ahead of China at 2.3 million mt, up 3.4%, and Japan at 1.8 million mt, a jump of 88.6%.

HRC export activity from India has slowed, with mills now refraining from formal export offers as they await a possible safeguards measure. If the levy is announced, industry experts say it may dramatically alter the equations in the Indian steel market over the next few months.