UltraTech Cement Poised to Outperform Dalmia Bharat, Say Analysts; Strong FY25 Results Back Bullish Outlook

UltraTech Cement is expected to outperform its peer Dalmia Bharat in both the short and long term, according to analysts at JM Financial, who maintain a bullish stance on the cement major. Technical and fundamental indicators continue to support the view that UltraTech offers superior return potential.

Neeraj Agarwal, Technical & Alternative Research Analyst at JM Financial, noted that UltraTech Cement has declined only 1.3% over the past 10 months, compared to a steeper 6.4% drop in Dalmia Bharat, resulting in a negative normalized return spread of 7.7%. “This spread has reversed from -9% to -6% multiple times, and we expect a similar trend to follow,” Agarwal said. Now, the spread is 1.8 standard deviations lower than its mean and is at the 1st percentile.

On Monday, UltraTech Cement shares rose 1.15% to ₹11,776.65, worth ₹3.45 lakh crore. Dalmia Bharat’s stock remained flat at ₹1,949.10 with a valuation of nearly ₹36,500 crore.

Since the last month, however, Dalmia Bharat has risen by 7%, topping UltraTech’s 3% rise. Apart from that, Agarwal believes UltraTech will lead ahead, having a trade target value of ₹12,733 with a stop-loss of ₹10,997.

Beneath this positivity, UltraTech Cement posted solid Q4 FY25 numbers with consolidated net profit growing 10% YoY to ₹2,482 crore. Revenue increased 13% at ₹23,063 crore, and EBITDA grew 12.3% at ₹4,618 crore. Margins reduced marginally to 20%.

In the future, UltraTech plans to achieve double-digit volume expansion in FY26 with ₹9,000–10,000 crore of spending during the financial year. It is looking forward to increasing capacity to 211 million tonnes (MT) in FY27 from FY25’s 183.4 MT. Saving costs of ₹300 per tonne are also on the cards for FY27.

Brokerages remain upbeat. Sharekhan has a ‘buy’ rating with a target of ₹13,647, while InCred Equities raised EBITDA estimates by 4% for FY26–27 and revised its target price to ₹13,550, maintaining an ‘add’ rating.