India Surges Ahead in Steel Growth, Eyes 300 MTPA Capacity by 2030

India is poised to become the third-largest global steel powerhouse, aiming for a crude steel capacity of 300 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) by FY2030–31. Production growth in India has, to some extent, surpassed even that of China. According to MP Financial Advisory Services LLP, the nation was already claiming 205 MTPA by FY2024-25, with the leaders in steel announcing an additional 167 MTPA of new capacity expansion to address the gap.

Steel production blossomed in India during 2016-2024 with an estimated CAGR of ~5%, significantly higher than production increases in China (2.76%) and the global average (1.77%). Under a shadow of decline in China since 2020, India, with an 8% CAGR, has sprouted further since then, accentuating its growing prominence in the global steel supply chain.

There exists wonderful growth potential in India; with rapid infrastructure development, housing demand, and manufacturing push, 93.4 kg of per capita steel consumption in India is less than half of the global average of 219 kg. On the flip side, the sector confronts some burning hurdles: 85% dependence on imported coking coal, scarce steel scrap, emission of CO2 in large quantities, and trade threat of low-price imports and carbon tariffs.

To take the sector over the hurdle, MPFASL envisions five strategic levers:

• Private Sector Drive: The capacity expansion and green steel journey is being spearheaded by the private sector with an 83% production share.
  
• Domestic Demand Boom: Consumption is going up with rising investments in railways, construction, and auto.
• Policy Push: Government initiatives like Mission Coking Coal, Steel Scrap Recycling Policy, and the PLI scheme for specialty steel are ensuring raw material and market access.
• Tech Shift: The industry is shifting toward hydrogen-based DRI, gas-based plants, and low-emission production.
• Specialty Steel Focus: With a target to add 25 MTPA of value-added steel, the ₹6,322 crore PLI scheme aims to attract ₹40,000 crore in investments and create more than 5 lakh job opportunities.

“To me, the 300-MTPA-attempt is not only a capacity building exercise, it is about economic sovereignty, climate leadership, and global competitiveness”, said Mahendra Patil, founder of MPFASL. The right combination of innovation, policy, and sustainability is getting India ready to become a global hub for green and specialty steel.